The Collier Report of U.S. Government Contracting

Old School Reporting Using Modern Technology

Predictive Science Incorporated

  • Predictive Science Incorporated

  • View government funding actions
  • San Diego, CA 921213933
  • Phone: 858-450-6489
  • Estimated Number of Employees: 9
  • Estimated Annual Receipts: $0
  • Business Start Date: 2008
  • Contact Person: Meaghan Marsh
  • Contact Phone: 858-450-6494
  • Contact Email: office@predsci.com
  • Business Structure:
  • Corporate Entity (Not Tax Exempt)
  • Business Type:
  • For Profit Organization
  • Industries Served:
  • Product Areas: RESISTORS

Sampling of Federal Government Funding Actions/Set Asides

In order by amount of set aside monies.

  • $60,038 - Tuesday the 4th of December 2012
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    IGF::OT::IGF OTHER FUNCTIONS NRA AWARD, PROPOSAL TITLE : FROM SUN TO ICE: A CROSS-DISCIPLINARY WORKSHOP ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF EXTREME SOLAR EVENTS EXTREME SOLAR ERUPTIVE EVENTS, WHILE RARE, CAN HAVE MONUMENTAL EFFECTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUN TO EARTH'S POLAR ICE CAPS. THEY HAVE BEEN IMPLICATED IN THE DEPLETION OF OZONE AND CLOUD FORMATION, AND THEIR OCCURRENCE CAN BE SEEN DIRECTLY IN ICE CORE RECORDS SPANNING MORE THAN 400 YEARS INTO THE PAST. THEIR EFFECTS AT OTHER PLANETS, AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM CAN BE IMPORTANT, AND VIOLENT FLARE ACTIVITY CAN EVEN BE OBSERVED AT OTHER STARS. YET THE BASIC PHYSICAL PROCESSES THAT LEAD TO THESE EVENTS, THE ACCELERATION AND TRANSPORT OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES, AND THEIR EFFECTS AT EARTH AND ELSEWHERE REMAIN POORLY UNDERSTOOD. WITH RECENT ADVANCES IN THEORY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF NEW DATASETS, TOGETHER WITH SOCIETY'S CONTINUALLY INCREASING RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGY, A COORDINATED STUDY OF EXTREME EVENTS AND THEIR IMPACTS AT EARTH IS BOTH TIMELY AND NECESSARY. WE PROPOSE TO CONVENE TWO WORKSHOPS ON THIS INTERDISCIPLINARY TOPIC TO ADDRESS SEVERAL FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS, INCLUDING: (1) WHAT MAKES THESE EVENTS EXTREME? (3) WHY ARE SOME EVENTS EXTREME IN SOME ASPECTS (E.G., CME SPEED) BUT NOT OTHERS (E.G., SEP FLUXES)? (3) HOW SHOULD THE SOLAR ACTIVITY RECORD IN ICE CORES BE INTERPRETED? AND (4) WHAT POSSIBLE EFFECTS COULD THE SO-CALLED "SUPER-STORMS," SUCH AS THE CARRINGTON EVENT OF 1859, HAVE HAD ON OZONE LEVELS? TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF THE WORKSHOPS, WE WILL INVITE LEADING EXPERTS REPRESENTING EXPERIMENTERS, DATA ANALYSTS, THEORETICIANS, AND MODELERS IN A RANGE OF SUB-DISCIPLINES, INCLUDING SOLAR, STELLAR, PLANETARY, HELIOSPHERIC, MAGNETOSPHERIC, IONOSPHERIC PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ICE-CORE CHEMISTRY. IN ADDITION TO STUDYING BASIC SCIENCE QUESTIONS IN THE CHAIN OF EVENTS FROM THE SUN TO THE ICE, WE WILL FOCUS ON THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT REGIONS, WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CROSS FERTILIZATION OF IDEAS, AND GROUPS HAVE OFTEN REACHED SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS, BASED ON THE SAME AVAILABLE MEASUREMENTS. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE FIRST WORKSHOP WILL INTRODUCE THE MAIN OUTSTANDING ISSUES IN EACH FIELD, DEFINE THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN EACH FIELD, AND IDENTIFY HOW CROSS-DISCIPLINARY STUDIES CAN LEAD TO NEW INSIGHT. DURING THE SECOND WORKSHOP (APPROXIMATELY ONE YEAR LATER), THE PROGRESS MADE DURING THE PREVIOUS YEAR WILL BE REPORTED AND NEW QUESTIONS AND ISSUES RESULTING FROM THESE STUDIES WILL BE ADDRESSED.
  • $60,011 - Saturday the 1st of December 2012
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    IGF::OT::IGF OTHER FUNCTIONS NRA AWARD, PROPOSAL TITLE : FROM SUN TO ICE: A CROSS-DISCIPLINARY WORKSHOP ON THE CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF EXTREME SOLAR EVENTS EXTREME SOLAR ERUPTIVE EVENTS, WHILE RARE, CAN HAVE MONUMENTAL EFFECTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SUN TO EARTH'S POLAR ICE CAPS. THEY HAVE BEEN IMPLICATED IN THE DEPLETION OF OZONE AND CLOUD FORMATION, AND THEIR OCCURRENCE CAN BE SEEN DIRECTLY IN ICE CORE RECORDS SPANNING MORE THAN 400 YEARS INTO THE PAST. THEIR EFFECTS AT OTHER PLANETS, AND ELSEWHERE IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM CAN BE IMPORTANT, AND VIOLENT FLARE ACTIVITY CAN EVEN BE OBSERVED AT OTHER STARS. YET THE BASIC PHYSICAL PROCESSES THAT LEAD TO THESE EVENTS, THE ACCELERATION AND TRANSPORT OF ENERGETIC PARTICLES, AND THEIR EFFECTS AT EARTH AND ELSEWHERE REMAIN POORLY UNDERSTOOD. WITH RECENT ADVANCES IN THEORY AND THE AVAILABILITY OF NEW DATASETS, TOGETHER WITH SOCIETY'S CONTINUALLY INCREASING RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGY, A COORDINATED STUDY OF EXTREME EVENTS AND THEIR IMPACTS AT EARTH IS BOTH TIMELY AND NECESSARY. WE PROPOSE TO CONVENE TWO WORKSHOPS ON THIS INTERDISCIPLINARY TOPIC TO ADDRESS SEVERAL FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS, INCLUDING: (1) WHAT MAKES THESE EVENTS EXTREME? (3) WHY ARE SOME EVENTS EXTREME IN SOME ASPECTS (E.G., CME SPEED) BUT NOT OTHERS (E.G., SEP FLUXES)? (3) HOW SHOULD THE SOLAR ACTIVITY RECORD IN ICE CORES BE INTERPRETED? AND (4) WHAT POSSIBLE EFFECTS COULD THE SO-CALLED "SUPER-STORMS," SUCH AS THE CARRINGTON EVENT OF 1859, HAVE HAD ON OZONE LEVELS? TO ENSURE THE SUCCESS OF THE WORKSHOPS, WE WILL INVITE LEADING EXPERTS REPRESENTING EXPERIMENTERS, DATA ANALYSTS, THEORETICIANS, AND MODELERS IN A RANGE OF SUB-DISCIPLINES, INCLUDING SOLAR, STELLAR, PLANETARY, HELIOSPHERIC, MAGNETOSPHERIC, IONOSPHERIC PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ICE-CORE CHEMISTRY. IN ADDITION TO STUDYING BASIC SCIENCE QUESTIONS IN THE CHAIN OF EVENTS FROM THE SUN TO THE ICE, WE WILL FOCUS ON THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT REGIONS, WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CROSS FERTILIZATION OF IDEAS, AND GROUPS HAVE OFTEN REACHED SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS, BASED ON THE SAME AVAILABLE MEASUREMENTS. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE FIRST WORKSHOP WILL INTRODUCE THE MAIN OUTSTANDING ISSUES IN EACH FIELD, DEFINE THE BOUNDARIES BETWEEN EACH FIELD, AND IDENTIFY HOW CROSS-DISCIPLINARY STUDIES CAN LEAD TO NEW INSIGHT. DURING THE SECOND WORKSHOP (APPROXIMATELY ONE YEAR LATER), THE PROGRESS MADE DURING THE PREVIOUS YEAR WILL BE REPORTED AND NEW QUESTIONS AND ISSUES RESULTING FROM THESE STUDIES WILL BE ADDRESSED.
  • $414,174 - Friday the 10th of July 2015
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    RESEARCH EFFORT TITLED, "THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE." THE CONTRACTOR SHALL CONDUCT A THREE-YEAR PROGRAM TO STUDY THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE. PSI WILL USE THE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC (MHD) EQUATIONS, EXTENDED TO INCLUDE IMPORTANT ENERGY TRANSPORT PROCESSES, TO EVALUATE A NEW WAVE-TURBULENCE-DRIVEN MODEL FOR CORONAL HEATING AND SOLAR WIND ACCELERATION, USING A FORMULATION THAT NATURALLY INCLUDES DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON OPEN AND CLOSED MAGNETIC FIELD LINES, INCORPORATING MODERN IDEAS OF PARKER'S CORONAL HEATING THEORY AND ALFV NIC SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF FREE PARAMETERS, BY INCLUDING THE MECHANISMS THAT HEAT THE CORONA AND ACCELERATE THE SOLAR WIND SELF-CONSISTENTLY. THE MODEL WILL BE TESTED EXTENSIVELY BY COMPARING PSI'S RESULTS WITH CORONAL EMISSION MEASUREMENTS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM SDO'S AIA INSTRUMENT, AND IN SITU SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS, INCLUDING PLASMA COMPOSITION, ON ACTIVE REGION AND GLOBAL CORONAL SCALES. PSI'S INVESTIGATION WILL CONTINUE TO TEST EMPIRICAL CORONAL HEATING MODELS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME EXTENDING THEM USING BETTER DESCRIPTIONS OF FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICAL PROCESSES. THIS TWO-PRONGED APPROACH WILL UTILIZE TODAY S OBSERVATIONS FROM SDO WITH A MODEL THAT IS EXTENSIBLE TO THE FUTURE. PSI'S RESEARCH WILL ALSO TEST A NEW HYPOTHESIS FOR THE SOURCES OF THE SLOW SOLAR WIND. PSI'S HIGH-RESOLUTION 3D MHD SIMULATIONS GIVE A UNIQUE VIEW ON HOW SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE IS PROPAGATED INTO THE HELIOSPHERE. IMPORTANTLY, THE MODEL MAKES VERIFIABLE PREDICTIONS THAT CAN BE TESTED AGAINST IN SITU OBSERVATIONS, A CORNERSTONE OF OUR PROPOSED PROJECT. IN ADDITION TO STUDYING CORONAL HEATING AND THE PROPERTIES OF THE SOLAR WIND, PSI WILL STUDY HOW FAST CMES ARE TRIGGERED, HOW ENERGY IS RELEASED IN THE PROCESS, AND HOW CMES CONNECT WITH INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC CLOUDS. PSI WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODELS AND RESULTS TO THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, VIA CCMC AND DATA PRODUCTS ON THEIR WEB SITE. A HALLMARK OF PSI'S PROGRAM HAS BEEN TO NARROW THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND OBSERVATIONS BY ADVANCING THEORETICAL CONCEPTS TO THE POINT WHERE MODELS CAN BE COMPARED DIRECTLY WITH OBSERVATIONS. PSI WILL CONTINUE THIS TRADITION BY ANALYZING RESULTS FROM PAST AND PRESENT NASA MISSIONS, INCLUDING SOHO, TRACE, ACE, ULYSSES, STEREO, HINODE, AND SDO.
  • $404,003 - Friday the 10th of July 2015
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    RESEARCH EFFORT TITLED, "THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE." THE CONTRACTOR SHALL CONDUCT A THREE-YEAR PROGRAM TO STUDY THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE. PSI WILL USE THE MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC (MHD) EQUATIONS, EXTENDED TO INCLUDE IMPORTANT ENERGY TRANSPORT PROCESSES, TO EVALUATE A NEW WAVE-TURBULENCE-DRIVEN MODEL FOR CORONAL HEATING AND SOLAR WIND ACCELERATION, USING A FORMULATION THAT NATURALLY INCLUDES DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES ON OPEN AND CLOSED MAGNETIC FIELD LINES, INCORPORATING MODERN IDEAS OF PARKER'S CORONAL HEATING THEORY AND ALFV NIC SOLAR WIND TURBULENCE TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF FREE PARAMETERS, BY INCLUDING THE MECHANISMS THAT HEAT THE CORONA AND ACCELERATE THE SOLAR WIND SELF-CONSISTENTLY. THE MODEL WILL BE TESTED EXTENSIVELY BY COMPARING PSI'S RESULTS WITH CORONAL EMISSION MEASUREMENTS, INCLUDING THOSE FROM SDO'S AIA INSTRUMENT, AND IN SITU SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS, INCLUDING PLASMA COMPOSITION, ON ACTIVE REGION AND GLOBAL CORONAL SCALES. PSI'S INVESTIGATION WILL CONTINUE TO TEST EMPIRICAL CORONAL HEATING MODELS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME EXTENDING THEM USING BETTER DESCRIPTIONS OF FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICAL PROCESSES. THIS TWO-PRONGED APPROACH WILL UTILIZE TODAY S OBSERVATIONS FROM SDO WITH A MODEL THAT IS EXTENSIBLE TO THE FUTURE. PSI'S RESEARCH WILL ALSO TEST A NEW HYPOTHESIS FOR THE SOURCES OF THE SLOW SOLAR WIND. PSI'S HIGH-RESOLUTION 3D MHD SIMULATIONS GIVE A UNIQUE VIEW ON HOW SMALL-SCALE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE IS PROPAGATED INTO THE HELIOSPHERE. IMPORTANTLY, THE MODEL MAKES VERIFIABLE PREDICTIONS THAT CAN BE TESTED AGAINST IN SITU OBSERVATIONS, A CORNERSTONE OF OUR PROPOSED PROJECT. IN ADDITION TO STUDYING CORONAL HEATING AND THE PROPERTIES OF THE SOLAR WIND, PSI WILL STUDY HOW FAST CMES ARE TRIGGERED, HOW ENERGY IS RELEASED IN THE PROCESS, AND HOW CMES CONNECT WITH INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC CLOUDS. PSI WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MODELS AND RESULTS TO THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, VIA CCMC AND DATA PRODUCTS ON THEIR WEB SITE. A HALLMARK OF PSI'S PROGRAM HAS BEEN TO NARROW THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND OBSERVATIONS BY ADVANCING THEORETICAL CONCEPTS TO THE POINT WHERE MODELS CAN BE COMPARED DIRECTLY WITH OBSERVATIONS. PSI WILL CONTINUE THIS TRADITION BY ANALYZING RESULTS FROM PAST AND PRESENT NASA MISSIONS, INCLUDING SOHO, TRACE, ACE, ULYSSES, STEREO, HINODE, AND SDO.
  • $159,739 - Wednesday the 14th of January 2015
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    NASA RESEARCH AWARD ENTITLED: USING A SOPHISTICATED MHD MODEL TO IMPROVE PREDICTION OF CME INITIATION AND PROPAGATION WE PROPOSE TO USE A SOPHISTICATED MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC (MHD) MODEL TO IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CME INITIATION AND PROPAGATION. OUR PROPOSED MODELING WILL FOCUS ON PERFORMING DETAILED CME "EVENT STUDIES," IN WHICH WE WILL USE DETAILED OBSERVATIONS AS INPUTS TO THE MODEL, INCLUDING OBSERVED MAGNETIC FIELDS. FROM THE MODEL WE WILL PRODUCE SIMULATED OUTPUTS THAT CAN BE DIRECTLY COMPARED WITH OBSERVATIONS. INCLUDING \THITE-LIGHT IMAGES AND EUV AND X-RAY EMISSION, AND THE EVOLUTION OF FLARE RIBBONS. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CME INITIATION, AND THE SUBSEQUENT PROPAGATION OF CMES IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE, LEADING TO IMPROVEMENTS IN SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION. AT PRESENT, THERE ARE MANY THEORIES OF CME INITIATION. THE PROPOSED CME EVENT STUDIES ARE MEANT TO IDENTIFY WHICH ONE (OR MORE) OF THESE THEORIES CAPTURES THE ESSENTIAL ASPECTS OF CME INITIATION, BY USING OBSERVATIONS TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN COMPETING THEORIES. THE FOLLOWING ARE SELECTED GUIDING QUESTIONS THAT WILL HELP US TO IMPROVE CME PREDICTION: * IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FREE ENERGY IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD AND THE TENDENCY OF AN ACTIVE REGION TO ERUPT? * CAN THIS RELATIONSHIP BE EXPLOITED TO PREDICT WHEN AN ERUPTION IS IMMINENT? * IS THERE A CHARACTERISTIC SIGNATURE IN THE MAGNETIC FIELD GEOMETRY/STRUCTURE/TOPOLOGY THAT MIGHT BE USED TO SENSE ERUPTION? * WHAT ARE THE FUNDAMENTAL WAYS IN WHICH ACTIVE REGIONS ARE ENERGIZED? * CAN WE QUANTIFY THE TRIGGER FOR ERUPTION AND USE IT AS A PREDICTOR? OUR PROPOSED PROJECT WILL UTILIZE DATA FROM THE UPCOMING SDO MISSION EXTENSIVELY, AS WELL AS DATA FROM HINODE, STEREO, AND SOHO OBSERVATIONS. THE TESTING OF MODELS AGAINST THESE OBSERVATIONS IS A CENTRAL TASK IN OUR PROPOSED EFFORT. WE WILL SHARE OUR SIMULATION RESULTS WITH THE FOCUSED SCIENCE TEAM MEMBERS TO MAXIMIZE THE PROGRESS OF THE TEAM, AND WE WILL INCORPORATE INNOVATIONS FROM OTHER TEAM MEMBERS INTO OUR MODEL.
  • $149,999 - Tuesday the 24th of July 2012
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    A DETAILED INVESTIGATION AIMED AT UNDERSTANDING THE ORIGINS OF A NUMBER OF THE UNIQUE FEATURES OF THE MINIMUM OF SOLAR CYCLE 24. WE WILL USE A THREE-DIMENSIONAL, TIME-DEPENDANT MHD MODEL TO COMPUTE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND HELIOSPHERE, WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO INTERPRET AND CONNECT REMOTE SOLAR OBSERVATIONS WITH IN SITU MEASUREMENTS.
  • $128,425 - Monday the 22nd of October 2012
    Department Of Air Force
    FA9550 AFRL AFOSR
    INCREMENTAL FUNDING
  • $124,951 - Thursday the 27th of September 2012
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA SHARED SERVICES CENTER
    CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES) ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE MOST SEVERE SPACE WEATHER AT EARTH. MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ARISE WHEN CMES CARRY LARGE AMOUNTS OF MAGNETIC FLUX AS THEY PROPAGATE IN THE SOLAR WIND. IF THESE MAGNETIC FIELDS HAVE A SOUTHWARD ORIENTATION (OPPOSITELY DIRECTED TO THE MAGNETIC FIELD AT THE EARTH'S MAGNETOPAUSE), THEY CAN CAUSE A GEOMAGNETIC STORM. PREDICTING IN ADVANCE WHETHER OBSERVED CMES WILL CARRY GEOEFFECTIVE MAGNETIC FIELDS IS A LONG-TERM PRIORITY FOR THE CCMC AT NASA GFSC AND OTHER GROUPS WITHIN NASA AS WELL. WE PROPOSE TO COMBINE THE EXISTING CORHEL (CORONA-HELIOSPHERE) MODEL OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND SOLAR WIND WITH A ROBUST TECHNIQUE FOR GENERATING SIMULATED CMES. WHEN SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED, THE NEW TOOL, CORHEL-CG, WILL ALLOW ROUTINE SIMULATION OF CMES AND REPRESENT A LEAP FORWARD IN PHYSICS-BASED SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.
  • $124,738 - Monday the 17th of September 2012
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA SHARED SERVICES CENTER
    SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS (SPES) REPRESENT A MAJOR HAZARD FOR EXTRAVEHICULAR MANEUVERS BY ASTRONAUTS IN EARTH ORBIT, AND FOR EVENTUAL MANNED INTERPLANETARY SPACE TRAVEL. WE PROPOSE TO DEVELOP A SYSTEM TO AID FORECASTERS IN THE PREDICTION OF SUCH EVENTS, AND IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF ``ALL CLEAR'' TIME PERIODS WHEN THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUCH EVENTS OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM COMBINES EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENTS WITH PHYSICS-BASED MODELS BY LEVERAGING THREE RECENTLY DEVELOPED TECHNOLOGIES: A TOOL FOR FORECASTING SOLAR ERUPTIONS FROM LINE-OF-SIGHT MAGNETOGRAMS (UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT HUNTSVILLE), PHYSICS-BASED MODELS OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE WITH EMBEDDED SOLAR ERUPTIONS (PREDICTIVE SCIENCE, INC., OR PSI), AND EMPIRICAL/PHYSICS-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES USING THE EARTH-MOON-MARS RADIATION ENVIRONMENT MODULE (EMMREM, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE). WHEN COMPLETED, THE PROPOSED SPE THREAT ASSESSMENT TOOL, OR STAT, WILL REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT STEP FORWARD IN OUR ABILITY TO ASSESS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF SPE EVENTS.
  • $119,999 - Friday the 10th of July 2015
    National Aeronautics And Space Administration
    NASA HEADQUARTERS
    CURRENT GLOBAL MHD MODELS OF CMES IN THE HELIOSPHERE (ICMES), WHILE BEING ABLE TO REPRODUCE THE BASIC FEATURES OF THEIR EVOLUTION, FAIL TO CAPTURE A WIDE RANGE OF INTERESTING PHENOMENA. FOR EXAMPLE, HOW AND WHEN DO ICMES INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER? WHEN, OR DO THEY MERGE TO FORM COMPLEX EJECTA? WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ICMES, MAGNETIC CLOUDS AND COMPLEX EJECTA? HOW DO ICMES MODIFY THE UNDERLYING AMBIENT STRUCTURE AND HOW DOES THE AMBIENT SOLAR WIND DEFORM THE ICME? HOW DO CME-DRIVEN SHOCKS FORM AND EVOLVE AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SUN? HOW DOES THE STRUCTURE OF THE SOLAR WIND (AND IN TURN, THE PHASE OF THE SOLAR CYCLE) MODULATE THE EVOLUTION OF ICMES AND THE SHOCKS THEY DRIVE? IN ADDITION TO THEIR INTRINSIC SCIENTIFIC VALUE, ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS HAVE BROAD RAMIFICATIONS FOR TOPICS RANGING FROM THE ACCELERATION AND TRANSPORT OF SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLES TO SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION. WE PROPOSE TO APPLY A NEW, ROBUST, EVENT-BASED CME GENERATOR TO STUDY SPECIFIC EVENTS, BOTH INDIVIDUALLY AND STATISTICALLY, TO PROVIDE SYSTEMATIC AND DETAILED ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS. OUR APPROACH IS UNIQUE IN THAT IT COMBINES THE FOLLOWING KEY FEATURES INTO A SINGLE, UNIFIED MODEL: - A NEW ROBUST, EVENT-BASED CME GENERATOR THAT BRIDGES THE GAP BETWEEN FULLY SELF-CONSISTENT MODELS OF CME INITIATION AND SIMPLER AD HOC MODELS - A GLOBAL MHD MODEL THAT INCLUDES ALL OF THE ESSENTIAL ENERGY TRANSPORT PROCESSES - AN ACCURATE AMBIENT SOLAR WIND SOLUTION DRIVEN BY OBSERVED PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELDS - MODEL VALIDATION USING REMOTE SOLAR OBSERVATIONS (WHITE LIGHT, EUV, AND SOFT X-RAY) AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS (STEREO, NEAR-EARTH, AND ULYSSES) BY COUPLING OUR RECENTLY DEVELOPED CME GENERATOR WITH A THREE-DIMENSIONAL, TIME-DEPENDENT MHD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND HELIOSPHERE, WE WILL BE ABLE TO ACCURATELY COMPUTE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS FOR SPECIFIC TIME PERIODS, ALLOWING US TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF ICMES AND INTERPRET AND CONNECT REMOTE SOLAR OBSERVATIONS WITH IN SITU MEASUREMENTS. OUR MODEL, WHICH INCLUDES ENERGY TRANSPORT PROCESSES, SUCH AS CORONAL HEATING, CONDUCTION OF HEAT PARALLEL TO THE MAGNETIC FIELD, RADIATIVE LOSSES, AND THE EFFECTS OF ALFVEN WAVES, IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ESTIMATES OF BOTH CORONAL AND HELIOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS THAN WAS POSSIBLE IN THE PAST. TO ACCOMPLISH OUR GOALS, WE WILL DEVELOP DETAILED MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR A RANGE OF INITIAL CME CONDITIONS AND A VARIETY OF AMBIENT SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS ENCOMPASSING VARIOUS PHASES OF THE SOLAR CYCLE. THE RESULT OF OUR SIMULATIONS (INCLUDING POST-PROCESSING ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION TOOLS) WILL BE MADE AVAILABLE TO THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY. OUR OBJECTIVES DIRECTLY ADDRESS THE MAIN GOALS OF THE SUPPORTING RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY (SR&T) COMPONENT OF THE SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC (SHP) PROGRAM, TO UNDERSTAND THE ORIGIN, EVOLUTION, AND INTERACTIONS OF SPACE PLASMAS IN THE HELIOSPHERE. BY EXTENSION, THEY ALSO SUPPORT NASA S STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES.

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